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Four major reports have come out lately that indicate a pick up in housing.

The December 2010 pending home sales index, the number of contracts signed to buy a new home, rose 2 percent to 93.7.  This is the fifth gain in the last six months. 

Existing home sales for December 2010 rose 12.3% from November, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million and was also the fifth increase in six months.  This puts existing homes for sale at an 8.1 month supply, down from 9.5 months in November.  Sales of single-family homes increased 11.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.64 million from 4.15 million in November.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau New Residential Sales report, new home sales jumped more than 17 percent in December.  The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales was 329,000.  There were approximately 191,000 new homes for sale in December, the lowest since February of 1968. At the current sales rate, this represents only about 6.9 months supply of new homes.

Also according to the U.S. Census Bureau, December 2010 housing permits were up over 16 percent from November. This is the fourth consecutive increase for single family permits. The lumber and building material industry has been particularly hard hit in the housing down-turn, a steady increase in new home construction would give the building material industry and the economy a significant boost.

It’s that time again: Our new, 2011 contractor planners have arrived.

Go ahead, make an early new year resolution, and start getting better at planning. We want to give you all the tools you need to be successful at whatever you put your hands at. Whether you’re a custom home builder, a remodeler, or a do it yourselfer, you’ll love this monthly planner.

Chock full of useful information, for anyone building or fixing a house, you’ll find all you need in this builder-oriented planner.

It includes useful features, such as:

• A place for your contacts
• Important Dates
• Monthly Calendars, starting in December of 2010 and ending in January 2012
• Chart of Dimensional lumber grades & uses
• How to read grade stamps
• Span charts
• Alternative decking materials
• Vinyl Window Installation Guidelines
• Pre-hung Doors Installation Guide
• I-Joist installation guides
• and Much More!

Stop by to see us, and get your free contractor planner today!

New home sales were up about 5% in November, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. At the same time, there were approximately 197,000 new homes for sale, which is the lowest since April of 1968. We have a number of forces converging that should increase new home permits and starts. Economists generally agree that annual demand for new housing units is somewhere around 1.8 million. Some economists say that 2 million units are required annually, while others think that the actual demand is around 1.5 million. Here’s part of how they come up with these numbers. The primary drivers of housing unit demand are new household formation and housing unit destruction. We regularly hear that new households, on average, form at a rate of 850,000 per year. Our population continues to grow, currently at a rate of about 3 million people per year. In 1990, there were over 4 million live births in the US, those young people (along with those born in subsequent years) should be forming new households soon. Currently, new household formation should be 750,000 – 1,000,000, yet young people still choose to live with parents, or stay single with several young adults living together. This “pent-up” demand should be a major force, as young people begin to start new households at an increasing rate. Another factor is that homes have been being destroyed by fire, flood, storms and urban renewal, and many have not been being replaced.  In 2005, roughly 340,000 homes were destroyed by Hurricane Katrina alone, and fire, flood and storms are constantly destroying more every year.

About 5 million “used” homes are currently for sale, and as people sell those units, they will need to move into another housing unit.  Most of the homes for sale are currently occupied by owners and renters that wish to move to a different location, or a larger or smaller housing unit.  This “musical chairs” of houses requires many empty houses, since a buyer cannot simultaneously buy and sell a house and make an instant move.   Foreclosures can fill a part of the need, but not everyone wants to buy a foreclosure.  New homes typically fill a part of this need, but there is not much selection there.   It wouldn’t take much to “soak up” all of the available new homes.   Also, as employment picks up (which it seems to be slowly doing), less homes will be lost to foreclosure and most of those who lost their homes to foreclosure will want to move back into a home.  As demand for new homes domestically and globally picks up, lumber prices will move up.

An indicator of future new home starts has fallen again, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The December 13, 2010 news release states that November New Home permits fell 4% from October. This is an indicator that future demand of lumber and building materials may stabilize or trend lower in coming weeks.

Single family permits were 6.9% above October’s seasonally adjusted rate of 435,000. Single family permits rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South. Only the West had a decrease in single family permits.

New single family permits, starts and inventory all remain near a multi-decade low.

Many lumber prices continue to rise as global demand outpaces supply. Many items are difficult to find and some are no longer being made, as mills have focused on producing items that are readily marketable.

Lumber futures have surged higher in the last couple of weeks.  Strong demand from Asia coupled with annual mill shutdowns for holiday maintenance have driven futures “limit up” more than once this past week.

The price for lumber futures for January delivery is approaching the 2010 high set in April.

According to the Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, new home starts were up in November, for the first time in three months.

The possibility of a housing shortage next year has been increasing, as new home supply dwindles and the bargains in foreclosures evaporate.  September New Home inventory was the lowest it has been since 1968.  Our population as a nation has continued to increase, even in the weak economy.

To compound the problem, a foreclosed new home is still counted as a new home for sale, until it is sold or demolished.  Consequently, the number of homes for sale may be significantly overstated.  Here in the Atlanta – Athens area, there are many foreclosed new homes that are uninhabitable in their current state, some will require a large investment to be able to get a “certificate of occupancy”, and some will have to be demolished.

Lumber exports to Asia have increased and are actually greater than US lumber usage for the first time. This is due to two factors: the slowdown in the US housing market and increased housing demand in China. Canadian wood exported to China has increased 75% YOY, while US lumber consumption has continued to decrease due to weak housing demand.

Lumber prices in the Atlanta area have been gradually increasing as global competition continues to drive prices up.

Builder Confidence for December remained unchanged at 16.

This house at Bold Springs presented numerous design challenges for our Engineered Wood Department. Wood “I” joists and LVL’s allowed large open rooms from the basement to the top floor, and “I” joist rafters allowed for extra attic space and resulted in an extremely flat roof. Most of the “I” joists are 56′ long. Wood waste was minimized when all EWP products were pre-cut on our SawTec beam saw.

Wood parts for the 66 columns were pre-cut in our mill shop, and assembled on the job.

Do you have design challenges? Contact our EWP department at (770) 995-3905 and let us help.

Cofer/Adams in Lawrenceville has the lumber you need! Whether it is #2 and #3 SPF Lumber for framing, bracing and pallets; Cedar Lumber for outdoor projects,
pressure treated lumber for decks and porches,
composite lumber,
or clear lumber for interior trim and finish, Cofer/Adams Lumber Company has it all!

Visit our Atlanta – Athens area lumber company in Lawrenceville and see the various lumber products available, or call us at (770) 995-3900 and let us help YOU build YOUR American Dream Home.

We deliver to most cities in the Atlanta-Athens GA area regularly. Ask us about deliveries to Alpharetta, Braselton, Buford, Commerce, Conyers, Covington, Cumming, Duluth, Douglasville, Gainesville, Lilburn, Loganville, Madison, Marietta, McDonough, Norcross, Roswell, Snellville, Stockbridge and others.

Lumber and building material prices have had quite a change in price patterns this year. Typically (over 80% of the time), the annual lows for lumber occur in October. This year, the low occurred in mid-summer, after a huge increase and decrease in the Spring. The chart shows how volatile prices can be, with production capacity lower and a slight increase in demand. It took over 3 months for mills to add enough production and when demand dropped off due to higher prices, it took another couple of months to adjust back down again.
The best analysis I have seen is at The Skyrocketing Price of Lumber by Al Tomkins –
“Earlier this year, The Wall Street Journal explained what was happening to lumber prices:

“Lumber prices shot up because of a shortage of supply. When the housing market cratered, mills in the U.S. and Canada slashed production; output plummeted about 45% between 2005 and 2009, according to Random Lengths, an industry data provider.

“Wholesalers shrank their own inventories and had little incentive to build them back up last year. Housing is the largest single source of demand for lumber, and new-home sales fell 7.6% in December from the prior month, to 342,000 units.

“So when builders began their annual re-stocking for the spring construction season, there was little slack in the supply chain, causing a squeeze on prices. Some firms also stepped up speculative construction in the hope that an expiring federal tax credit would boost the market.

” ‘Any increase in demand is going to allow the mills to raise their prices,’ said Gary Vitale, president of the North American Wholesale Lumber Association.”

The steady increase over the last half of the year indicates that lumber supply and demand is closer to equilibrium, and reactions to changes now illicit a more measured approach. Every mill, contractor and lumber company should be aware of the extreme volatility at these levels of business, and when quoting, should be aware of the extreme risk if pricing too low. Our industry operates on thin margins, and a quote held for 30 days could cause huge losses if prices increase. Holding prices for 30 days or more has already put many companies out of business in our area, and remaining contractors should be very careful when pricing now. If a supplier offers to hold prices, that supplier might actually have to close (or even bankrupt, as several have) to keep from having to honor those prices.

The supply chain is extremely thin, and many items can no longer be found locally.

Do you have an entry pediment that needs replacing in the Atlanta – Athens GA area? Pediments can be purchased in many sizes and styles from Cofer/Adams.

Visit our Atlanta Athens area retail home improvement building material supply & lumber company in Lawrenceville and see the available windows, doors and pediments you can buy, or call us at (770) 995-3900 and let us help YOU build YOUR American Dream Home.

Check out our selection of Wood, MDF and PVC mouldings to give your home a finished look!

We deliver to most cities in the Atlanta-Athens GA area regularly. Ask us about deliveries to Alpharetta, Acworth, Braselton, Buford, Commerce, Conyers, Covington, Cumming, Duluth, Douglasville, Gainesville, Lilburn, Loganville, Madison, Marietta, McDonough, Norcross, Roswell, Snellville, Stockbridge and others.

Cofer/Adams will be closed Thursday, November 25th through Sunday, November 28th to allow our employees to spend time with their families. We will re-open Monday, November 29th with new Winter hours.

Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving weekend!

Lumber prices continue to rise as world-wide demand for U.S. and Canadian lumber exceeds production. If the current trend continues, we could see lumber and OSB double or triple in price over the next few months. While lumber and building material demand in the U.S. is muted due to low housing starts, other parts of the world, such as China and Europe, are rapidly increasing demand for North American building materials. New Zealand, Australia and countries in South America are also importing lumber and panels, and they are just now entering their peak building seasons. The gradual strength of the lumber market can be seen in this current lumber futures chart:

Lumber futures have increased over 40% since June.

Helping YOU Build YOUR American Dream

We believe in the American Dream. Heck, we’re pursuing it ourselves. We believe in YOUR American Dream, that house you always thought about with a back patio where you can grill burgers on a Sunday Afternoon and watch your kids toss the ball. A well built, good looking house that you can call a home. The home you’ve always wanted.

We also set the standard for the highest quality in customer service, and expect the same from our vendors who provide us the building materials you need to build your house.

We are located in Lawrenceville, Georgia, between Atlanta and Athens, and are a Complete Contractor Building Supply Center! Total commitment to quality and careful attention to detail is what you receive at Cofer/Adams. We bring friendly and dedicated service to all our customers. Beautiful homes begin with us!

Cofer/Adams Building Center is a full service building supply distributor. We carry products including:

• Framing Materials
• Boise Engineered Floors
• James Hardie Cement Siding
• YKK Windows
• Interior & Exterior Doors
• Atlas Roofing Materials
• Versa Lift Ultimate Attic Storage System

We have a nine-acre facility that includes a main office and store complex, with a large selection of builders hardware, an engineered wood department, pre-hung door shop, and three warehouses with over 40,000 square feet of warehouse space. We also have the capability to provide custom millwork.

• Give Us A Call & Let Us Help You Build YOUR American Dream
• Cofer-Adams Bldg Center, Inc.
• 175 Buford Drive
• Lawrenceville, Ga. 30046
• 770-995-3900 Phone
• 770-995-3927 Fax
• info@coferadams.com

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices(PDF), home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose July from a year earlier.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 3.2 percent from July 2009.

Have all of the bargains already been bought?
Many people wish they could get that kind of return on their investments!

Available existing homes for sale in Atlanta are near a 5 year low, and new homes for sale nationwide are at the lowest point since February, 1970!

Call for current hours (770) 995-3900.